Airlines in 2024
Good morning, readers. Happy New Year everyone, welcome to 2024. Seeing as it's a new year, we're doing some looking ahead. First for the airline industry and also for what the new year holds for African safaris. That and an update on China's visa requirements for Americans. On the itinerary:
Airlines soaring into 2024
China eases visa requirements
Seven safari trends to watch for this year
These Trends are Megatrends
Megatrends, our annual forecast of the top travel industry trends, is back for another highly anticipated program in January. Kick-start 2024 beginning January 9 with unmatched thought leadership in New York City, London, or online. Secure your spot.
Airlines Heading Into 2024
Global aviation had a dream run in 2023. Everything that went wrong during the pandemic seemed to reverse – and then some. The industry has a strong set-up as we kick off 2024, so what better time to take a look at what may be in store for airlines.
More Capacity, Passengers and Profits: Airlines responded to all of our traveling by adding capacity as quickly as possible. According to an OAG report in December, global seat capacity for 2023 was just 3.7% behind 2019. In the first quarter of 2024, OAG expects it to be 2.9% ahead.
IATA, the aviation industry body, said passenger load factors were at 84.2% in the third quarter, just shy of levels in the same quarter of 2019 (84.5%).
Except for the Asia-Pacific region, IATA said, the world returned to pre-Covid traffic levels in 2023. Asia-Pacific is expected to get there in 2024.
Airlines Continue to Invest: On the back of record profits, airlines rushed to place orders with Airbus and Boeing. We don’t have a final count yet, but there are more than 2,900 aircraft orders with them after several deals in December.
The order book is largely tilted towards narrowbody aircraft, the primary workhorse for airlines with large domestic and regional networks.
Over 1,300 aircraft were delivered in 2023. AirInsight estimates that Airbus delivered 728 aircraft in 2023, and Boeing delivered 491 aircraft, including freighters. Embraer delivered 61 aircraft, and ATR delivered 33.
China’s Comac, which delivered its third C919 aircraft in 2023, also saw more orders in 2023, with Brunei GallopAir ordering 15 aircraft in September.
Oil Prices Down From Highs: IATA expects an average jet fuel price of around $115.50 in 2023 and $113.80 in 2024. While remaining elevated, both are below the $135.60 level of 2022, which was largely driven by the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
Supersonic Flight Tests: We don’t know yet if there will be a supersonic flight in 2024. Boom Supersonic had reported that it would be ready for its demonstrator, XB-1’s first flight, in 2023. That got pushed to early 2024. Boom expects to operate up to 20 flights of the demonstrator before heading to supersonic speeds.
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China Eases Visa Rules for Americans
It’s now easier for U.S. citizens to visit China. The country has simplified entry rules for Americans visiting the country on tourist visas, no longer requiring them to submit proof of round-trip air tickets, hotel reservations, itinerary or invitation letter.
The Chinese ambassador to the U.S. wrote on X: “More good news for travelers to China: starting from January 1, 2024, our Embassy and Consulates-General in the U.S. will simplify application documents required for tourist visa.”
This is expected, “to further facilitate people-to-people exchanges between China and the U.S.,” according to the website for the Chinese embassy in Washington.
This is the latest move in a series of efforts from China to boost its inbound tourism sector. In November, it announced a temporary visa waiver for citizens from France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Spain, Malaysia and Singapore.
The country has also broadened its visa-free transit policies to include 54 countries, with Norway as the latest addition. Foreign travelers transiting through China to visit a third country, can enjoy a six-day stay in specific Chinese cities without the need for a visa.
According to booking data from China-based DidaTravel, the visa-free policy led to a surge in hotel bookings. From December 1 to 7, hotel reservations from travelers in Spain heading to China doubled from week earlier. Reservations from travelers in Malaysia jumped 67%. Reservations from Italian travelers were up 50%.
Trip.com Group’s data also reveals a significant surge in flight searches for China among travelers from these countries.
African Safari Trends for 2024
African countries are seeing a surge in international travel fueled by luxury safari experiences with repeat visitors. We spoke to a half-dozen operators of multi-day safari tours and safari hospitality brands and came away with seven emerging trends we expect will shape safari tourism in the year ahead. Here’s a preview of just a few.
Increased Spending on Safari Trips: Adventure-booking platform TourRadar said Africa has emerged as a major outbound market for North American and European travelers.
Its 2023 search and booking data showed that trips valued over $3,800 (€3,500) had doubled since 2019, fueled by demand for premium safari experiences. The average trip spend for safaris specifically has increased by 65%, said Aziaz Sheikh, TourRadar Head of Community.
Travel bookings headed into 2024 also showed safari travelers are looking to stay for longer stretches — by an average of at least two days or more.
Returning for More Immersive Experiences: These return visitors are looking for more involved experiences, with safari itineraries across multiple countries instead of single-country trips, according to Discover Africa Head of Product Murielle Mignot-Vegezzi. Pairing different experiences with traditional safari itineraries drove travel to less-visited African countries, said Rendel of Where It All Began.
Multi-Generational Private Group Travel: Discover Africa said it’s seen more inquiries for families traveling together, including grandparents, aunts, and cousins. This multi-gen travel trend drove a shift in accommodation offerings at luxury lodges to cater to larger groups with manor homes, villas, and family camps instead of traditional 2-bedroom stays.
Getting Guests Off the Safari Vehicle: Finch Hattons, a luxury tented camp in West Kenya, said its guests are looking to get off the safari vehicle to make a deeper connection with the surrounding Tsavo West National Park. Hiking through the cloud rainforest in the Chyulu Hills, exploring the Shetani Lava Flow, and practicing yoga in the Chyulu bushveld are part of a “healing journey with a Kenyan influence.”
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